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Canaan (CAN) is a Chinese language firm whose enterprise is promoting Bitcoin mining machine {hardware}. It has no different vital enterprise and doesn’t obtain any recurring software program income. These machines are second fee, behind different bitcoin mining rig producers like Bitmain. CAN’s machines are at the moment unprofitable to miners based mostly on the present Bitcoin worth and electrical energy charges to run the machines.
To make issues worse for CAN and its Bitcoin mining prospects, on 5/11/20, the Bitcoin Halving Event occurred. This Halving (or halvening) occasion actually signifies that Bitcoin miners will obtain half the Bitcoin they usually obtained from mining. And Bitcoin miners utilizing CAN’s mining machines are at the moment shedding no less than $1 per day.
The one different enterprise CAN has, is its synthetic intelligence (AI) chip that solely made RMB2.7M in revenues ($390Okay USD) in 2019, or 0.2% of whole revenues. CAN’s AI chip has not been in a position to compete with these of AI chip producer leaders Nvidia (NVDA) and Superior Micro Units (AMD).
CAN is on monitor to be utterly out of money inside 1-2 years. Then it’ll haven’t any selection however to attempt to increase funds, which can be tough because it was tough for it to even get its IPO completed. {Most professional} cash managers don’t wish to take the chance of investing in a cryptocurrency firm as a result of banking regulations. CAN has 157M shares excellent, and is at the moment buying and selling at $5.50 per share. That makes the market cap a whopping $800M+. This can be a nonsensical market cap in our opinion. We forecast a 80-90% draw back for CAN to lower than $1 per share.
Cryptocurrency and Mining Skilled Is Detrimental On Canaan’s Miners
Cryptocurrency skilled and Bitcoin mining skilled Drew Vosk from his VoskCoin channel on Youtube analyzes CAN’s newest AvalonMiner in this video from 5/7/20. CAN despatched him their newest miner, the AvalonMiner 1066Professional, free of charge with a purpose to get a evaluation on the channel. The next are some photographs of it from the video:
Source: VoskCoin YouTube Video
Vosk reveals that the miner is sold by their distributor, BlokForge, for $999 USD. He tries to say good issues about it, like saying it has good options, skilled packaging, and is nice from a efficiency perspective with no stability points and straightforward accessibility.
However then he stated at time 10:35:
Clearly this miner isn’t super-efficient and it isn’t super-profitable. Until you’ve a very actually low electrical fee, this isn’t going to be a superb purchase until your playing on the way forward for Bitcoin going up considerably in worth.
This video was revealed on 5/7/20, when Bitcoin was trading at about $9,000. The next is from the video exhibiting the AvalonMiner’s projected profitability over a 12 months that features the impression of the BTC block reward halving:
Source: VoskCoin YouTube Video
As proven above, the AvalonMiner 1066 mined 0.000886 BTC in sooner or later. The month-to-month revenue is simply half the yearly revenue, as a result of the Bitcoin halving occasion hadn’t kicked in but on the time the video was made. As soon as it kicks in, it is going to be an enormous adverse for mining earnings. Why would anybody pay $1K or extra for a miner to solely make $44 in revenue per 12 months? That may take over 20 years simply to interrupt even, and that’s solely contemplating electrical energy prices. It’s not even contemplating different components and prices, reminiscent of:
- the time worth of cash,
- time and expense of organising the miner and its electrical setup,
- upkeep and monitoring,
- danger of Bitcoin depreciation,
- danger {of electrical} price inflation,
- the cupboard space,
- the subsequent halving occasion in 4 years.
VoskCoin revealed a video on 2/20/20, titled: “What do you could mine one bitcoin in 2020?” that goes into element on the problem of Bitcoin mining as we speak.
He states within the video that it’s solely going to get an increasing number of tough to mine a Bitcoin as time goes on. The next chart measures how tough it’s to Bitcoin mine:
As proven within the chart above, it constantly has gotten an increasing number of tough to Bitcoin mine, and can get even tougher as time goes on. The web site explains that “a excessive issue means that it’s going to take extra computing energy to mine the identical variety of blocks”. Extra computing energy requires extra electrical energy.
Within the video, Vosk makes use of the Bitmain Antminer s17e, which was top-of-the-line, most worthwhile miners as we speak. As proven beneath in a shot from the video, Vosk mined 0.001028 BTC with the Antminer.
Source: VoskCoin YouTube Video
Recall above, the AvalonMiner 1066Professional solely mined 0.00089 Bitcoin, which is about 11% much less. And that’s CAN’s newest technology and greatest miner, whereas the Antminer s17e is Bitmain’s earlier technology miner.
Canaan’s Poor Monetary Outcomes
The Chinese language RMB to US greenback trade fee is about 7 to 1. The next are CAN’s choose monetary outcomes over the previous three years:
Source: CAN Annual Report
As proven within the 2019 Annual Report, 2019 product income (Bitcoin mining machines) of US$200.1M makes up 98% of the corporate’s income. The remainder of the income is insignificant, with Lease income US$3.5M, Service income $0.4M, and Different income $0.4M.
With the upper Bitcoin worth in 2017, CAN was in a position to promote their machines at a better worth than it sells them for as we speak. Gross margin was 46% in 2017 and 19% in 2018. Bitcoin costs remained low in 2019, thus turning gross margin adverse, to -36%.
Due to a pointy lower within the Bitcoin worth, CAN had impairments of stock and prepayment write downs of US$112M in 2018 and US$104.7M in 2019. This negatively affected the corporate’s internet revenue for these years. Because the majority of CAN’s US$149M loss in 2019 was from write downs, adverse money movement from operations and investments was about -US$42M for the 12 months.
Within the Q419 earnings call on 4/9/20, CAN CEO Shaoke Li said:
We count on our whole internet revenues to be at least RMB60 million within the first quarter of 2020.
That’s solely about USD$8.6M guided for Q120. If we assume that degree of gross sales will stay for the complete 2020 12 months, that’s solely about $35M in revenues for the 12 months. That’s a whopping 83% decline from 2019 revenues. In fact, a part of the corporate’s low income in Q120 is because of the coronavirus outbreak in China and the remainder of the world. Time will inform if the corporate can enhance gross sales in later quarters with the headwinds of the halving occasion.
CAN’s money steadiness of US$74M on the shut of 2019 will possible not final two years earlier than the corporate is out of money until Bitcoin significantly will increase in worth. Matt D’Souza, co-founder and CEO of crypto mining {hardware} dealer Blockware Options, was quoted in this 3/15/20 report that Canaan “might have gone bankrupt” if the corporate didn’t increase $90 million from the IPO sale, however finally, it was “one other lemon delivered to buyers”.
Bitcoin’s Current Rally Has Prompted Canaan Inventory To Rally As Properly
Over the previous few weeks, bitcoin has rallied together with the inventory market possible as a result of hypothesis concerning the Block (or Bitcoin) Halving Occasion that occurred on 5/11/20. The next chart reveals bitcoin’s latest rally over the previous month:
Source: coindesk.com
As proven within the chart above, Bitcoin’s worth began rallying in mid-April. That was additionally about when the inventory market began rallying. We consider it additionally rallied because of the Bitcoin Halving occasion. Many consider this occasion will increase the worth of Bitcoin as a result of miners mine much less, due to this fact much less Bitcoin are continuously being added to the circulation, which, in idea, decreases Bitcoin inflation.
This bull case from the halving occasion is weak in our opinion. And it definitely wouldn’t trigger an natural leap in BTC straight away. It’s going to possible take months and even years to take impact. The latest leap in BTC was simply from hypothesis and pleasure of the halving occasion, and we count on it to return again down within the close to future because the halving occasion got here and went.
CAN has additionally rallied over the previous two months, as proven within the two month chart beneath:
Supply: CAN share worth
Folks suppose CAN is a Bitcoin play, due to this fact it’s going up with Bitcoin. That is true to a sure extent. Nonetheless, CAN doesn’t do any of its personal mining, like its competitor, Bitmain does. CAN additionally doesn’t personal any Bitcoins. It simply makes its revenues by promoting the Bitcoin mining {hardware}. Nonetheless, its mining machines are at the moment unprofitable, due to this fact CAN sells it to miners at beneath its manufacturing price. Because of this CAN’s 2019 gross margin is adverse.
The Bitcoin Halving Occasion
On 5/11/20, the Bitcoin Halving Occasion occurred. Block rewards are lower in half, so miners solely get half the bitcoin that they have been in a position to mine earlier than. That is dangerous for miners, and plenty of must stop their enterprise. From CAN’s 2019 annual report:
Moreover, the quantity of Bitcoin awarded for fixing every block will decline, with the subsequent halving occasion designed to happen in Might 2020.
The Block Halving Occasion is defined in this Forbes article from 4/27/20.
Bitcoin halving has solely occurred twice to this point. On 11/28/12, the primary Bitcoin halving occasion occured, and the value of Bitcoin elevated from $11 to $1,00Zero a few 12 months later. Throughout July, 2016, the second halving passed off and the value of Bitcoin was buying and selling at round $700, and in 2017, the value skyrocketed to $20,000. Nonetheless, the appreciation didn’t come from the halving, however from wild investor hypothesis.
This third Bitcoin halving occasion has seen some lofty predictions on Bitcoin costs. Bitcoin has not too long ago rallied on hypothesis of this occasion. Nonetheless, we consider vital Bitcoin appreciation is unlikely as this occasion has been talked about for a while in Bitcoin circles. We now have spoken with a number of Bitcoin consultants and all have stated they don’t consider Bitcoin will recognize considerably from the upcoming halving occasion.
With the Bitcoin growth, bubble, and burst in 2017, we doubt it’ll growth to the diploma that it did after the earlier halvings. Bitcoin is now already well-known worldwide. The “new paradigm” argument that it had in 2017 possible wouldn’t catch on as a lot once more. Bitcoin costs are nonetheless primarily held up by hypothesis, as Bitcoin nonetheless isn’t commonly used virtually to purchase and promote items and providers.
If CAN buyers are assured that Bitcoin will rally considerably over the subsequent 12 months, then we consider they’d be higher off investing in Bitcoin. It doesn’t make sense to spend money on CAN inventory over Bitcoin proper now in our opinion. On that be aware, if CAN brief sellers are involved a few Bitcoin rally inflicting CAN to rally, then shopping for Bitcoin could be an appropriate hedge to their CAN brief. Even when Bitcoin rallies significantly from as we speak’s degree, it’s not a assure that CAN will turn out to be worthwhile.
Canaan’s Bitcoin Mining Machines Are At present Unprofitable
Each mannequin of CAN’s AvalonMiner at the moment reveals a $1-$2 Bitcoin mining loss per day. As proven beneath:
Source: Asic Miner Worth Web site
The above is the estimated loss per day of the AvalonMiner, submit the Halving Occasion. This can be a actual time mining {hardware} profitability measurement for every mining machine in the marketplace as we speak. These estimates are from 5/12/20 when Bitcoin was priced at $8840. The machine earnings change up or down with a change within the worth of Bitcoin. In fact, this profitability estimate doesn’t take note of different mining prices that we talked about earlier on this report, and the preliminary buy worth of the machine.
The web site states that the bills taken into consideration are electrical energy prices. To get the above every day revenue, we adjusted the electrical energy price to a low $0.08 per kWh, which is roughly the price of electrical energy in cheaper components of China. That is proven on globalpetrolprices.com, China price per kWh is proven beneath:
Source: globalpetrolprices.com
China has cheaper electrical energy than most international locations within the west, so most mining is finished there. As said in CAN’s 2019 annual report, 74.8% of its 2019 income was from prospects in China.
The default price of electrical energy the web site offers on the backside of the web page is $0.12 per kWh. That’s concerning the common price of electrical energy within the US. The consumer can change that price relying on their location on the earth, and the mining machine profitability will change. The default foreign money is USD, which will also be adjusted on the backside of the web page to different types of foreign money.
The Asic Miner Worth reveals quite a lot of totally different Bitcoin mining machines. The one ones that CAN has are the AvalonMiners. Those which are worthwhile are primarily these from main Bitcoin mining machine producer Bitmain.
The next are probably the most worthwhile Bitcoin mining machines:
Source: Asic Miner Worth
The above profitability estimates have been additionally taken on 5/12/20, when the Bitcoin worth was at $8840, and electrical energy prices are set at $0.08 per kWh. As proven above, a lot of the worthwhile rigs are the Bitmain Antminer. Their newest and what can be most worthwhile rig, the Bitmain Antminer S19 Professional, is scheduled to be launched in Might 2020. It’s featured on their website.
We haven’t discovered any logical cause to purchase Canaan’s miners over Bitmain’s miners. Maybe in 2017, when bitcoin was scorching, Bitmain didn’t have sufficient miners to promote to everybody. Nonetheless, now that Bitcoin isn’t as scorching, there’s no cause to purchase the AvalonMiner.
Bitcoin Mining Farm Corporations Seem To Not Be Shopping for Canaan’s AvalonMiner
A Bitcoin mining farm is a warehouse filled with mining rigs. As a result of great amount of electrical energy wanted to Bitcoin mine, mining farms are the one option to make mining a barely worthwhile endeavor.
Riot Blockchain (RIOT), is a Blockchain applied sciences firm with its personal Bitcoin mining operation. It produced roughly 139.28 Bitcoins in Q419. From the latest 10-Q, Riot bought 4,00Zero Bitmain Antminer S17 Professional miners from Bitmain in December 2019. On 5/7/20, Riot announced that it has bought a further 2040 subsequent technology Bitmain S19 Antminers in April and Might 2020. It hasn’t bought any AvalonMiners from CAN.
One other Bitcoin mining farm firm, Marathon Patent Group (MARA), announced on 5/11/20, that it bought 700 subsequent technology M30S+ ASIC Miners from MicroBT. The corporate claims these can be far more vitality environment friendly than their earlier S-9 Bitmain fashions.
Marathon is one other industrial miner that has bought one in every of CAN’s competing miners, and it wasn’t Bitmain. The M30S from MicroBT is extra worthwhile than the AvalonMiner based on asicminervalue.com.
Creation of an Altcoin Miner
In line with the next tweet, CAN has partnered up with Semiconductor Manufacturing Worldwide Company (OTCQX:SMICY). However SMICY is a decrease tier semiconductor firm.
Source: Twitter
It appears unlikely that an Altcoin miner would generate vital revenues for CAN.
Canaan’s AI Chip Seemingly Can’t Compete With The Huge Gamers
CAN has pressured the significance of promoting different merchandise moreover its Bitcoin mining machines. From the 2019 annual report:
The event of AI expertise, particularly because it pertains to edge computing, and the acceptance of ASICs for AI purposes is essential to our future success in diversifying our product providing.
In September 2018, we launched the primary technology of our AI chip, Kendryte Okay210, and we started mass manufacturing within the fourth quarter of 2018. Okay210 is a SoC that integrates machine imaginative and prescient and machine listening to features. We have been the primary within the trade to ship industrial edge computing AI chips based mostly on Risc-V structure and self-developed neural-network accelerator with excellent efficiency.
Already, CAN has proven issues promoting its AI chip. The passage above states that CAN started mass manufacturing of its AI chip in Q418. Nonetheless, for the complete 2019 12 months, CAN solely had RMB2.7M (or $400Okay USD) in gross sales from its AI chip, which is simply 0.2% of 2019 revenues.
CAN can not compete with established AI chip makers NVIDIA (NVDA) and Superior Micro Units (AMD). NVDA and AMD are the large gamers and dominate the trade.
CAN hasn’t said what benefit their AI chip has, or who the top purchaser is. CAN’s website with info on their Okay210 chip doesn’t present any specs.
On one other be aware, the truth that NVDA and AMD don’t promote Bitcoin mining machines tells us that they consider the market isn’t large enough to be value it to make them.
CAN’s CFO, Quanfu Hong, stated within the Q419 earnings call:
Okay. So, for 12 months 2019, the gross sales for the AI chip is RMB2.7 million, and for 2020 truly, we don’t suppose the income is being most vital half. An important half is that we now already cooperate with many high gamers within the AI trade.
And our mission has not being modified which is, we hope that the AI income within the subsequent three years will payout vital a part of our income construction. And proper now in numerous areas just like the good management and agriculture and trade, we already collaborated with many main firms. So, we principally are very assured sooner or later marketplace for AI Chip.
Hong is telling buyers that the quantity of gross sales isn’t as vital proper now, however contacts within the trade and future prospects are what’s vital. There’s no proof that CAN has an AI chip that may ever take off and make a big quantity of revenues. Given its AI chip gross sales at the moment solely make up 0.2% of whole income tells us that CAN has a probable unimaginable journey forward.
CAN confirms this doubt in its 2019 Annual Report:
We can not predict how or to what extent the demand for our merchandise within the AI market will develop going ahead. Moreover, as ASICs might not grow to be mainstream options for AI applied sciences and purposes, we would not have the ability to capitalize on the expansion available in the market for AI applied sciences and purposes with our ASICs.
Nonetheless, some buyers appear to have confidence in CAN’s AI Chip. In line with one individual on twitter:
Source: Twitter
CAN realizes that it should pivot away from Bitcoin mining machines and into different merchandise. It says within the annual report:
We plan to work intently with our companions in product growth to reinforce our visibility in new market traits and meet buyer demand by devoting extra sources to analysis and growth. We might also have to recruit extra staff for analysis and growth and product growth, reminiscent of software program engineers. We intend to proceed to capitalize on market alternatives for introducing new product purposes and conduct advance planning for our next-generation merchandise in a well timed method. Nonetheless, if we fail to penetrate into any of those or different new markets to which we commit our sources, we might not have the ability to generate returns on our investments and our monetary situation might endure.
Nonetheless, analysis and growth actions are inherently unsure, and we would encounter sensible difficulties in commercializing our analysis and growth outcomes, which might end in extreme analysis and growth bills or delays.
Rising its R&D and hiring extra staff, as CAN states it might need to do within the above passage, would enhance bills. In our view, an funding in CAN is the equal of investing in an AI chip startup hoping to compete with the large gamers. Not many tech startups with solely $400Okay in income have a $800M market worth, until they’ve some form of new innovation. CAN hasn’t indicated any new improvements in its AI chip.
Bitmain, the highest Bitcoin mining machine producer, hasn’t made it far with its AI chip. Bitmain announced that they’re promoting their first AI chip, BM1680, in April, 2018. They solely put out a pair follow-up information stories on it in 2018, and we haven’t heard something about it since then.
Canaan’s Inexperienced Govt Crew
CAN has a younger government staff. This implies they lack trade and enterprise expertise to know the best way to compete with the large gamers within the AI chip trade. All the executives are of their 30s. From the annual report:
Source: 2019 Annual Report
Examine this to the ages of NVDA and AMD executives, who’re of their 50s and 60s.
Nvidia Executives
Source: Yahoo Finance
Superior Micro Units Executives
Source: Yahoo Finance
The Bull Case for Canaan
We now have not been capable of finding any cause to purchase CAN’s AvalonMiner over Bitmain’s Antminer. The Antminer is proven to be far more worthwhile even with the halving occasion.
Nonetheless, there was some bullish stories on CAN. This report claims that:
“Its AvalonMiner product line contains quite a lot of ASIC-based rigs with totally different ranges of computing energy, ranging in worth from $1,00Zero to $2,000. All of them are highly effective sufficient to profitably mine Bitcoins after the halving occasion, making Canaan distinctive amongst mining rig sellers.”
We discover this assertion to not be true. There are many different miners that can be worthwhile after the halving occasion, and fairly a bit extra worthwhile than the AvalonMiner. Most different miners, reminiscent of Bitmain and MicroBT, additionally use ASIC (application-specific built-in circuit) chips. Due to this fact, we don’t perceive how the AvalonMiner is “distinctive” because the report states.
Conclusion – Canaan Is Massively Overvalued
At present, most Bitcoin mining machines, together with these which are manufactured by CAN, are unprofitable. With the Bitcoin Halving Occasion behind us, it’s now even worse for Bitcoin miners. Bitcoin at the moment isn’t appreciating with the momentum that’s wanted for many mining machines to turn out to be worthwhile. If CAN mining machines proceed to be unprofitable, then it is going to be unable to promote them, and the corporate may have one other massive loss in 2020 prefer it did in 2019. Its different companies, like its AI chip, are nonetheless within the speculative stage with no said benefit, and at the moment symbolize lower than 1% of the corporate’s revenues.
At its present $800M+ market cap, we consider CAN is extraordinarily overvalued. In our opinion, the market cap must be round $100M-$200M. Because it’s a latest IPO, the float is simply about 30% of the overall shares excellent. CAN has a lockup expiry on Tuesday, 5/19/20. If insiders begin promoting shares, that will enhance the float, and will push the inventory worth nearer to what we consider is its honest worth.
Disclosure: I’m/we’re brief CAN. I wrote this text myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. I’m not receiving compensation for it (aside from from In search of Alpha). I’ve no enterprise relationship with any firm whose inventory is talked about on this article.
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